ASTRA QUANTWhat is a prediction market?
A prediction market is a place where people trade contracts on the outcome of a real-world event. The price of each contract moves between 0 and 1 dollar (0–100 cents), and that price is usually read as the crowd’s estimate of how likely the event is.
Updated: 1 November 2026. Educational material, not financial advice. Astra Quant is independent and not the official Polymarket site.
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The short definition
Think of a question with a clear answer that will be known later: “Will Bitcoin close above a given price on Friday?”, “Will Team A win the final?”, “Will the central bank cut rates at its next meeting?”. A prediction market turns that question into two contracts — Yes and No. When the event is settled, the contract for the outcome that happened is worth $1 and the other one is worth $0. Before settlement, both contracts trade at prices in between.
Because a winning contract pays exactly $1, the price tells you something useful. If “Yes” trades at 64 cents, buyers are paying 64 cents for a chance to receive $1. That is roughly the same as saying the market puts the chance of “Yes” at about 64%.
How a prediction market works, step by step
- A market is created with a precise question, an end date and written resolution rules: what source decides the result and what counts as “Yes”.
- Traders buy and sell Yes and No contracts. Someone who thinks the event is more likely than the current price suggests buys Yes; someone who thinks it is less likely buys No or sells Yes.
- The price moves as new information arrives — polls, injuries, economic data, a sudden price move in crypto. The price at any moment is simply the level where the last buyers and sellers agreed.
- The market closes and resolves. After the event, the outcome is decided according to the rules. Winning contracts are worth $1, losing ones $0.
- Before resolution you can exit by selling your contract at the current market price, locking in a gain or a loss.
Why prices can be read as probabilities
If a contract that pays $1 trades at 30 cents, a buyer risks 30 cents to win 70. Buyers only do that if they think the true chance is at least about 30%. Sellers only accept if they think it is lower. The price settles where these views balance, which is why the price in cents is commonly read as a probability in percent. It is an estimate, not a guarantee: a 30% outcome still happens roughly three times in ten.
The detailed maths — including the spread between buy and sell prices and why Yes + No can add up to slightly more than 100¢ — is in our guide How prediction market odds work. To convert any price yourself, use the probability calculator.
What kinds of events are traded
- Politics — elections, party nominations, legislation, appointments.
- Crypto — price levels for Bitcoin and Ethereum, token launches, ETF decisions. See crypto prediction markets.
- Sports — match winners, tournament champions, season outcomes. See sports prediction markets.
- Economy — interest-rate decisions, inflation prints, recession calls.
Prediction market vs bookmaker
A bookmaker sets the odds and takes the other side of your bet. In a prediction market the price comes from traders on both sides, and you can usually sell your position before the event ends. We compare the two in detail in Prediction market or bookmaker.
How Astra Quant fits in
Astra Quant shows prediction markets with prices, volumes, charts and live events. Market data is based on public Polymarket data and updates automatically; Astra Quant is an independent project and not the official Polymarket site (more in Polymarket alternatives). Trading on Astra Quant uses ASC tokens. After registration you receive 1000 ASCD demo tokens, which are virtual and have no monetary value, so you can practise reading and trading markets without spending anything.
Reading your first market
Open any market and check four things: the exact question and resolution rules, the Yes and No prices, the liquidity and volume (how much is being traded), and the end date. A step-by-step walkthrough is in How to read a Yes/No market. The live example below is pulled from the site right now — open it and compare what you see with this checklist.
Common mistakes beginners make
- Treating 80% as “certain”. One in five such outcomes still fails.
- Ignoring the rules. Two markets with similar titles can resolve on different sources or dates.
- Trading thin markets. With little liquidity the spread is wide, and the displayed price can move a lot on a small order.
- Forgetting the time to close. Money in a long-dated market is tied up until it resolves or you sell.
Prediction markets can lose you the full amount you put in. Nothing here is financial advice; the demo mode exists precisely so you can learn the mechanics first.
Frequently asked questions
What is a prediction market in simple terms?
It is a market where people buy and sell contracts on the outcome of an event. A winning contract pays $1 and a losing one pays $0, so the price shows how likely traders think the event is.
Is the price the same as a probability?
The price in cents is commonly read as an implied probability in percent. It is the market’s estimate at that moment, not a guarantee of the result.
Can I try a prediction market without real money?
On Astra Quant new users receive 1000 ASCD demo tokens after registration. They are virtual and have no monetary value.
Can I exit before the event ends?
Usually yes: you can sell your contract at the current market price before the market closes.
New accounts receive 1000 ASCD demo tokens — virtual, with no monetary value.